The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, began its deliberations on Monday for the first bi-monthly monetary policy of the fiscal year. Analysts anticipate that the committee will maintain the current benchmark lending rate due to concerns over inflation driven by the ongoing crisis in West Asia. Since February 2025, the RBI has implemented a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts, reflecting its most aggressive easing cycle since 2019. The last rate cut occurred in December, with the committee opting to hold rates steady in its previous meeting in February. Experts are particularly concerned about the impact of rising global crude oil prices, which have surged to over $100 per barrel, potentially increasing domestic inflation by up to 0.60% for every $10 rise in crude prices. Furthermore, the Indian rupee has depreciated by over 4% since the onset of the conflict, exacerbating import inflation. The MPC is expected to adopt a cautious tone, emphasizing the need to monitor geopolitical tensions and their effects on inflation, as well as liquidity conditions and financial market stability. The government has mandated the RBI to keep retail inflation around 4% with a tolerance range of 2%, a framework established since 2016.