According to Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, India is likely to face 6% below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026, largely due to the influence of the El Niño weather pattern. This pattern is expected to negatively impact precipitation during the latter part of the June-September monsoon season. Rainfall is projected to be 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of approximately 817 mm for this four-month period. While June is expected to see 101% of LPA, this figure is set to decline to 95% in July, 92% in August, and 89% in September. Notably, the eastern and northeastern regions of India may receive above-normal rainfall, whereas northern, western, and central areas are likely to experience deficits. The upcoming forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is anticipated next week, and economists emphasize that early predictions may be revised, especially considering the impact of the ongoing conflict in West Asia on fertilizer availability and inflation trends in India.