Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted that India will experience below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026, estimating it to be 94% of the long-period average of 868.6 mm during the June-September period. This forecast is primarily influenced by the El Nino weather pattern, which is known to cause warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, leading to reduced precipitation. The southwest monsoon is critical for India, contributing to 70% of the country's annual rainfall and supporting the agriculture sector, which is vital for the economy and sustains more than half of India's population of over 1.4 billion. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to release its first monsoon forecast next week, and the timely arrival of rains is particularly important for kharif crop sowing, which occurs mainly in June and July. Normally, the southwest monsoon begins in Kerala on June 1 and spreads across the country by July 15.