Polymarket bettors are expressing a bleak outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the 'no cuts in 2026' contract reaching a 43% probability. Over $18 million has been wagered on various scenarios, indicating a significant shift in sentiment following the recent 3.3% year-over-year Consumer Price Index increase. Traders are now pricing in zero cuts for 2026, reflecting concerns over rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran. The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75% during its March meeting, signaling that it will wait for further economic data before making any adjustments. Analysts from Bank of America and JPMorgan have differing forecasts, with the latter predicting no cuts at all. The upcoming FOMC meeting on April 29 will be pivotal, as traders will closely monitor the April CPI report and developments in the Iran conflict that could affect oil prices. If the Fed holds rates steady, the elevated yields on risk-free assets may deter institutional investments in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which historically respond to rate cuts. The Polymarket 'no cuts' contract will resolve on December 31, 2026, reinforcing the message that bettors should not expect immediate relief from the Fed.