The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that the monsoon rainfall for India in 2026 will be 8% below normal, translating to 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is 87 cm based on historical data from 1971 to 2020. This forecast is largely influenced by the El Niño weather pattern, which is known to decrease precipitation levels. Concerns have been raised regarding the potential effects on agricultural output, consumption, and inflation due to this expected shortfall in rainfall. Private weather forecaster Skymet has also indicated a similar trend, predicting rainfall at 94% of LPA, or around 817 mm for the four-month monsoon season. While many areas across India are likely to experience below-normal rainfall, regions in Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India may see normal to above-normal precipitation. The IMD plans to release updated forecasts for the monsoon season in the last week of May 2026. Additionally, current neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may shift to positive, which could enhance monsoon rainfall despite the prevailing El Niño conditions.