India's 2026 Monsoon Forecast Predicts 8% Below Normal Rainfall
Southwest monsoon to be 8% below Long Period Average: IMD
The Economic TimesImage: The Economic Times
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that India will experience monsoon rainfall in 2026 at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is 8% below normal. This prediction raises concerns over potential impacts on crop output and inflation, particularly due to the influence of the El Niño weather pattern.
- 01IMD predicts monsoon rainfall in 2026 will be 8% below normal.
- 02The Long Period Average (LPA) for rainfall is 87 cm based on 1971-2020 data.
- 03El Niño is expected to negatively impact precipitation levels.
- 04Certain regions, including parts of Northeast and South Peninsular India, may receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
- 05Updated forecasts will be issued by IMD in May 2026.
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that the monsoon rainfall for India in 2026 will be 8% below normal, translating to 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is 87 cm based on historical data from 1971 to 2020. This forecast is largely influenced by the El Niño weather pattern, which is known to decrease precipitation levels. Concerns have been raised regarding the potential effects on agricultural output, consumption, and inflation due to this expected shortfall in rainfall. Private weather forecaster Skymet has also indicated a similar trend, predicting rainfall at 94% of LPA, or around 817 mm for the four-month monsoon season. While many areas across India are likely to experience below-normal rainfall, regions in Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India may see normal to above-normal precipitation. The IMD plans to release updated forecasts for the monsoon season in the last week of May 2026. Additionally, current neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may shift to positive, which could enhance monsoon rainfall despite the prevailing El Niño conditions.
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The anticipated decrease in monsoon rainfall could lead to reduced agricultural yields, affecting food supply and potentially driving up prices.
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