The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the southwest monsoon rainfall for 2023 is projected to be below normal, estimating approximately 80 cm compared to the long-term average of 87 cm. Dr. M Mohapatra, Deputy General Manager of the IMD, stated that this rainfall is expected to be 92% of the long-period average, with a potential error margin of ±5%. A significant factor affecting this year's rainfall is the anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions, which typically result in decreased precipitation across India. Currently, the region is transitioning from weak La Niña conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions. However, the IMD also noted that positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions may develop during the latter half of the monsoon season, potentially mitigating some of the adverse impacts of El Niño. The IMD provides its initial monsoon forecasts in mid-April, followed by updates in late May.