Geopolitical tensions intensified on Thursday following remarks from former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a tougher military stance against Iran, leading to increased market anxiety. Andrew Freris, CEO of Ecognosis Advisory, indicated that the conflict is unlikely to resolve quickly, predicting it will last several years. He emphasized that both sides are entrenched in their positions, complicating the prospect for a ceasefire. This uncertainty is particularly affecting risk assets in emerging markets like India. Freris also addressed fears of oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that these risks are exaggerated. He noted that while 25% of global oil flows through Hormuz, 75% does not, and the U.S. remains a significant oil producer. Furthermore, he highlighted that countries like China, with substantial oil reserves and a transition away from fossil fuels, will be less affected. Freris suggested that the conflict could paradoxically accelerate the global shift away from oil dependency, particularly through increased adoption of electric vehicles. He also dismissed concerns about food inflation and fertiliser shortages, explaining that agricultural production can adapt through crop substitution. Overall, while volatility in oil prices and equities is expected, the long-term impact may reshape global economic structures.