The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is anticipated to keep key policy rates unchanged during its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting from April 6-8, as highlighted in a report by SBI Research. The report cites heightened global uncertainty due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has significantly disrupted global energy markets, particularly through the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to the largest oil market disruption since 1973. In India, the rupee is currently trading above 93 per dollar, and crude oil prices remain stubbornly above $100 per barrel, contributing to rising imported inflation, currently at 5.4%. SBI Research warns that consumer price index (CPI) inflation could exceed 4.5% for the next three quarters. Given these volatile conditions, the RBI is expected to exercise caution in its communication and policy measures. The report also notes significant capital outflows, with $16.6 billion recorded in FY26, the highest since 1991, and a projected balance of payments deficit in FY27. SBI suggests that the RBI may focus on liquidity management and market functioning rather than immediate rate changes, while addressing operational challenges posed by recent regulatory measures.