According to a report by Crisil Intelligence, India's retail inflation has shown a limited response to the sharp rise in global energy prices caused by the ongoing conflict in West Asia. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation increased to 3.4% in March, up from 3.2% in February, primarily due to rising food and fuel prices. Despite Brent crude prices rising by 45% and international natural gas prices by 69% in March, the overall impact on domestic inflation has been muted, thanks to government interventions such as excise duty cuts and stable retail fuel prices. Core inflation remained steady at 3.7%, indicating that second-round effects from higher energy prices have yet to be felt. Looking ahead, Crisil projects inflation to average 4.5% in fiscal 2027, with potential increases if the geopolitical situation persists. Additionally, weather conditions, particularly a projected below-normal southwest monsoon, could further complicate food inflation, as agricultural output may be affected by adverse weather. The report highlights that while certain food items have seen inflation rise, others like cereals and pulses have experienced deflation, contributing to a mixed inflation trend overall.