India's agricultural sector is bracing for a challenging FY2027, as highlighted in a report by ICRA. The India Meteorological Department has projected the southwest monsoon at 92% (±5%) of the Long Period Average (LPA), marking the weakest forecast in 25 years. Compounding this, the potential development of El Niño conditions could lead to reduced rainfall, historically associated with crop losses of up to 23%. This scenario poses significant risks to the kharif crop output, food prices, and reservoir replenishment, currently at 47% capacity. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions in West Asia threaten fertiliser supply chains, particularly for imports of critical fertilisers such as DAP, MOP, and NPK variants. The report warns that if disruptions persist, fertiliser availability and affordability could hinder sowing decisions. ICRA anticipates a decline in agricultural gross value added (GVA) growth, estimating it at 3%, while inflation could exceed 4.5%. Policymakers are urged to secure fertiliser imports and consider raising minimum support prices (MSP) to protect farmers from rising costs and production risks.