Motilal Oswal Highlights Recovery Potential for Indian Equities Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Markets set on favourable FY27 base; Iran war ceasefire key trigger: MOFSL
Business Standard
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Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) suggests that Indian equities may recover in FY27 after a challenging FY26, driven by potential ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict. Despite geopolitical risks, favorable domestic conditions and attractive valuations could support market growth.
- 01Indian equities are poised for recovery in FY27 after significant underperformance in FY26.
- 02A ceasefire in the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict could boost market sentiment.
- 03Valuations have become more attractive, with the Nifty trading at 18 times earnings.
- 04Earnings growth is expected to moderate, particularly in large-cap sectors.
- 05MOFSL's stock picks include Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, and Infosys.
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Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) has indicated a favorable outlook for Indian equities in FY27, following a challenging FY26 characterized by 3% decline and significant underperformance compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which rose 31%. The brokerage notes that a potential ceasefire in the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict could act as a catalyst for market recovery by unlocking positive sentiment. Despite geopolitical risks affecting energy supply, which sees 35-40% of India's crude demand passing through the Strait of Hormuz, domestic factors such as accommodative fiscal measures and improving GDP are expected to support growth. Currently, the Nifty trades at 18 times earnings, a 14% discount to its historical average, making valuations more attractive. However, earnings growth is projected to moderate to 10% year-on-year, down from previous quarters. MOFSL’s model portfolio favors sectors with strong growth visibility, including automobiles and PSU banks, while maintaining an overweight stance on mid- and small-cap stocks, reflecting the rising importance of emerging business models.
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If the market recovers, it could positively affect investor sentiment and stock performance, benefiting retail investors and encouraging further participation in the market.
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