In March 2026, Brent crude oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, marking a 60% increase due to geopolitical disruptions, particularly from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and production cuts by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members. The conflict has led to significant damage to Russian refining infrastructure, including key facilities like the Kirishi refinery, resulting in a loss of approximately 10-15% of Russia's refining capacity. Meanwhile, GCC producers, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have cut output by 4-6 million barrels per day to manage storage constraints and logistical challenges. The International Energy Agency has revised its global oil demand growth forecast down by 210,000 barrels per day, attributing this to higher prices and macroeconomic uncertainties. Analysts suggest that if geopolitical tensions de-escalate, a price correction of $20-$30 per barrel could occur, as normal supply levels could return to the market. Key catalysts, including upcoming diplomatic talks, could influence market dynamics significantly.