The likelihood of US oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel has risen to 44% due to Iran's heightened control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil transport. Iranian military forces recently fired at a tanker and hit another vessel, citing 'breaches of trust' by the US as the reason for renewed restrictions. This escalation follows a brief reopening of the strait after a ceasefire, which had previously led to a decline in oil prices. The US crude price dropped 9.4% to approximately $82.59 per barrel after the initial reopening, while Brent crude fell to around $90.38 per barrel. Lower oil prices had previously reduced inflationary pressures, positively impacting stock markets, including a 1.1% rise in the S&P 500. However, the renewed tensions threaten to reverse these gains, with analysts warning that continued restrictions could lead to significant price spikes in the near future.