Analyst Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin's recent rebound is not a signal of a new bull market but rather indicative of a late-cycle distribution phase. In his April 16 podcast, Cowen noted that current market behavior resembles historical late-cycle patterns, where a sharp correction is followed by a recovery that tests or slightly exceeds previous highs. This can mislead investors into thinking the market is strong before a broader downturn occurs. He referenced past cycles from 2000 and 2007, where markets rallied before entering deeper declines linked to economic slowdowns. Cowen anticipates that the current cycle might peak around September to October 2026, with a potential summer rally being part of a topping process rather than a continuation of bullish momentum. He emphasized that market tops develop gradually, characterized by repeated attempts to achieve new highs, choppy price action, and weakening underlying structure, making it challenging for investors to recognize a top in real time.