Implications of Strong El Niño Forecasts on India's 2026 Monsoon
Weather Bee: What do strong El Niño forecasts mean for the 2026 monsoon?
Hindustan Times
Image: Hindustan Times
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a higher likelihood of a strong El Niño, which typically suppresses monsoon activity in India. Historical data indicates that 80% of monsoons affected by El Niño since 1951 have experienced rainfall deficits, suggesting a potential deficit of 8% this monsoon season.
- 01NOAA predicts a strong El Niño is likely to develop by mid-2023.
- 02Historical data shows an 80% probability of monsoon rainfall deficits during El Niño years.
- 03The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an 8% deficit in monsoon rainfall this year.
- 04El Niño's impact on monsoon varies across different regions of India.
- 05The correlation between El Niño and monsoon performance has weakened in central India.
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The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has raised the likelihood of a strong El Niño developing this year, with forecasts indicating a 61% chance of its arrival by the May–July season. El Niño, a warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically suppresses monsoon activity in India, and historical data shows that 80% of monsoons affected by El Niño since 1951 have resulted in rainfall deficits. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates an 8% deficit in monsoon rainfall this year, with an error margin of ±5%. Notably, the relationship between El Niño and monsoon performance is not uniform across India, with the correlation weakening in central regions while remaining stable in northern and southern areas. The IMD's forecast may gain accuracy with updates expected in late May or early June.
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The anticipated rainfall deficit could affect agricultural productivity and water resources in India, impacting farmers and consumers.
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