Study Reveals AI Models Struggle with Soccer Betting Predictions
AI models are terrible at betting on soccer—especially xAI Grok
Ars Technica
Image: Ars Technica
A recent study by General Reasoning found that AI models from Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic lost money when betting on soccer matches during a simulated Premier League season. Despite advanced capabilities in various tasks, these models struggled to analyze real-world scenarios effectively over time.
- 01AI models from leading companies lost money in soccer betting.
- 02The study tested eight AI systems using historical data from the Premier League.
- 03Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 had the best performance, with an average loss of 11%.
- 04xAI’s Grok 4.20 went bankrupt during the betting attempts.
- 05The findings highlight the limitations of AI in adapting to long-term real-world scenarios.
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A new report titled 'KellyBench' from the London-based AI start-up General Reasoning reveals that leading AI models, including those from Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic, struggled with betting on soccer matches throughout a simulated 2023–24 Premier League season. The study tested eight AI systems, providing them with detailed historical data and statistics to build models aimed at maximizing returns while managing risk. Each AI agent was limited to three betting attempts and could not access the Internet for real-time updates. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 performed the best, with an average loss of 11% and nearly breaking even on one attempt. In contrast, xAI’s Grok 4.20 went bankrupt once and failed to profit in its other attempts. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro achieved a 34% profit in one attempt but also faced bankruptcy in another. These results underscore the challenges AI faces in adapting to dynamic, real-world environments over extended periods.
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