The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced a forecast for a below-normal monsoon in 2026, predicting rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), marking the lowest initial forecast in nearly three decades. This situation poses a significant risk to food prices, which have already shown signs of increasing. The IMD attributes this outlook to the expected development of El Niño conditions, historically associated with weaker monsoon winds in India. Areas most affected are likely to include Central and Western India, while some regions may still experience normal to above-normal rainfall. Experts warn that while current food inflation stands at 3.87%, a subpar monsoon could push Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation above 4.5% to 5% later in the year. Crops such as pulses, oilseeds, and rice are particularly vulnerable to price hikes due to potential yield losses. Households might see gradual increases in grocery bills for staples like rice and lentils starting in the July-September quarter. The IMD will provide an updated outlook at the end of May 2026, and households are advised to consider stocking non-perishables ahead of potential price surges.