State-owned fuel retailers in India, including Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), are currently facing substantial losses of ₹18 per litre on petrol and ₹35 per litre on diesel. These losses have arisen as pump prices have remained frozen since April 2022, despite significant fluctuations in global crude oil prices, which have ranged from above $100 per barrel to around $120 recently due to geopolitical tensions. The companies reported daily losses of approximately ₹2,400 crore at their peak last month, which have since narrowed to around ₹1,600 crore following a government excise duty cut of ₹10 per litre. However, this reduction has not been passed on to consumers. According to a report by Macquarie Group, the current pricing of crude oil could further exacerbate losses, with every $10 increase per barrel adding roughly ₹6 to marketing losses. With elections in key states approaching, there is a high likelihood of retail fuel price hikes post-election. The fiscal implications of further tax cuts could be significant, potentially leading to an annual revenue loss of around $36 billion and widening the fiscal deficit. Additionally, the current account deficit is expected to increase to around $20 billion in early 2026 if crude prices remain high.