Crude oil prices have surged more than 5%, rising above $105 per barrel, following a speech by US President Donald Trump that raised concerns about escalating conflict in the Middle East. This spike comes after a brief period of easing tensions that had previously pushed prices below $100. As a result, shares of Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), and Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) are expected to be in focus due to the potential impact on their profit margins. These companies, which buy crude oil to refine and sell, often struggle to pass on rising costs to consumers due to regulated pricing, leading to squeezed margins. Trump's remarks indicated a potential conclusion to the conflict within weeks, but they also heightened fears of further attacks on Iran's oil infrastructure. Earlier this month, UBS downgraded the target prices for these companies, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding earnings amid rising crude prices. The brokerage revised target prices to ₹175 for IOCL, ₹365 for BPCL, and ₹340 for HPCL. Analysts have noted that unless there are adjustments in fuel pricing or higher subsidies, earnings could decline sharply by 90% to 190% at current Brent levels. With geopolitical risks persisting, crude oil is expected to remain elevated, with $80 per barrel becoming the new normal for Brent.