The 2026 NFL Draft is shaping up to be challenging for teams seeking a franchise quarterback. Fernando Mendoza, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner from Indiana, is expected to be the first overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders. Despite his accolades, Mendoza's projection is tempered by a one-year wonder penalty in the QBASE 2.0 model, which estimates only a 15.2% chance that any of the other quarterbacks will develop into elite starters. Ty Simpson from Alabama, ranked 37th, has potential but lacks experience and elite stats, raising questions about his draft position. Garrett Nussmeier from LSU struggles with mobility, indicated by his negative rushing yards per attempt. Carson Beck, who transferred to Miami after an injury, and Drew Allar from Penn State, noted for his mobility but inconsistent passing, also present risks for teams considering them in the draft. The uncertainty surrounding this class may lead some teams to wait for the more promising 2027 draft class.