Opinion | As Iran War Enters Second Month, No Endgame In Sight At the end of the fourth week, Iran seems to be in a stronger position in the war and is daring the US to commence a ground offensive The war in West Asia has entered its second month, and the end of the conflict is not in sight. On February 28, Israel, in a preemptive attack, targeted the leadership of Iran and killed 49 top leaders, including the Supreme Leader. Military and nuclear assets were also engaged. The US followed Israel almost out of compulsion, fearing a counter-attack by Iran on its military presence in West Asia. Iran surprised the attackers by putting up bold resistance, as envisaged in the strategy of the Axis of Resistance (Mehvar-e-Mokavemat). It also attacked American bases and assets in all the Gulf nations and continues to engage them unabated and relentlessly to date. The Gulf countries, especially the UAE, are caught between a rock and a hard place and are desperately looking for an exit from this expanded war. Overtures of a ceasefire from the USA have not found favour in the Iranian establishment, and neither have they been honoured or backed by Israel. The world at large is trying ways and means to cope with the negative economic impact created by the war. In what was considered a lightning campaign, Israel and the USA hoped—on the ill advice of the head of Mossad—that once the top leadership of Iran was annihilated, a popular uprising would bring about regime change, and a fear psychosis in the new establishment would force the Iranians to plead for an early ceasefire. On the contrary, Iran had studied the pattern of Western offensives in Iraq, Libya, and Syria over the last two decades and had decentralised resources and decisions to 31 regional provinces. The Axis of Resistance is unfolding, with Hezbollah attacking northern Israel and the Houthis entering the war to fire cruise missiles and drones at Israel while threatening to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait, affecting the flow of traffic through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal artery. Venezuela is not in a position to support Iran because of the US hold on the country, but North Korea may clandestinely send arms and ammunition. In addition, China and Russia are providing arms, ammunition, and ISR intelligence to Iran. Recommended Stories - 'Foreign Women' Chase Off Harasser In Delhi, Street Fight Video Goes Viral; Netizens Call It Fake News - 'Still Hungry After All He's Achieved': Yuvraj Singh Opines Virat Kohli 'Kuch Bhi Kar Sakte' - Why Yuvraj Singh Doesn't Do Commentary: 'Won't Sit With People Who Made Personal Remarks' - Two held for robbing man on knifepoint At the end of the first month of the war, all three nations—the USA, Israel, and Iran—are claiming victory despite heavy losses to their military hardware and weapon systems. While the Iranian Army, Air Force, and Navy have been degraded substantially, the IRGC Navy is still intact and is engaging enemy ships in the Strait of Hormuz. At least 20 US aircraft, including 10–12 unmanned MQ-9 Reaper heavy drones, have been destroyed or damaged. One F-35 stealth aircraft has been damaged, and three F-15 aircraft have been destroyed, presumably by friendly fire. Two air-to-air refueller aircraft have been destroyed and five have been damaged while parked at the airfield. Ten US radars, including one AN/FPS-132 in Qatar, have been destroyed or damaged and made non-functional. Four of these were AN/TPY-2 radars in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE (2), while five other radars were in Baghdad, Kuwait (2), Bahrain, and Qatar. The THAAD system in Qatar was also hit, and another similar system is being shifted from South Korea. There are only eight THAAD missile systems available to the USA. Israel has been able to neutralise 94 per cent of Iranian missiles, but the 6 per cent that have gone through have created havoc in southern and central Israel, Tel Aviv, and Haifa. One Iranian missile was neutralised in the Old City of Jerusalem, and the debris caused a fire. The Gulf countries are bearing the brunt of Iranian retaliations to the Israeli and American attacks because they were “running with the hare and hunting with the hounds". Due to the continued missile and drone attacks on US bases, some US troops have reportedly shifted to hotels and business centres. Iran feels that these hotels and business centres are legitimate targets. Although Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain have been attacked repeatedly, the brunt of the Iranian retaliations was borne by the UAE. To date, 400 missiles and 200 drones have been fired upon the UAE, and most of them have been intercepted by the THAAD system. In 2020, when President Trump was eyeing the Nobel Peace Prize, he engineered the Abraham Accords, by which Israel and the UAE started trading with each other and diplomatic exchanges were conducted, marking the normalisation of relations between the two countries. This was not well received by the Muslim world, including Iran. The UAE was further isolated when Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, mooted the idea of a “Muslim NATO" and reached an agreement with Turkey and Pakistan, keeping the UAE out of the agreement. While all the Gulf countries are facing attacks by Iran, MBS of Saudi Arabia is egging the US to prolong the war so that Iran is considerably weakened and does not remain a potential threat in the future. Trump has claimed a win in the war several times. He gave Iran 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz or face serious consequences in terms of attacks on its power plants. He hinted at a ground offensive and ordered 3,500 US soldiers—including the lightly equipped 82nd Airborne Division, sailors, and marines—to be mobilised. Iran was not deterred and did not blink upon seeing this posturing. Trump, in a climbdown, enhanced the warning period by another five days and has now increased it to 10 days, until 06 April. Simultaneously, he suggested that Iran is in agreement with his 15-point peace plan. Iran rebuffed the 15-point plan and instead offered its own 5-point peace plan. Iran has surprised the international community with its tenacious and aggressive strategy to target all neighbours who are harbouring US troops. It is also defiant in accepting peace overtures and wants the threat of Israeli and US attacks to be removed once and for all. At the end of the fourth week, Iran seems to be in a stronger position in the war and is daring the US to commence a ground offensive so that it can inflict surmounting casualties on US troops and put domestic pressure on President Trump. There are a large number of anti-Trump processions in all states of the USA. For the ground offensive, the US has a few options. It may try to capture Kharg Island, which houses the oil export facilities of Iran. This island is 15 km from the mainland and also has oil pipelines running below it. In all previous wars, Kharg Island has never been attacked, as the flow of oil to various nations would be disrupted for a prolonged period. Another ground objective could be the islands of Qeshm and Larak in the Strait of Hormuz, which could engage Iranian defences on the northern side of the strait while also providing protection to ships carrying oil out of the Persian Gulf. Pakistan has volunteered to become a negotiator and peace broker and has held talks with Turkish, Saudi, and Egyptian counterparts. However, the warring sides—including Israel, the US, and Iran—have not entered into any direct talks. In a deterring tone, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has dared the US to commence ground attacks and added, “We are fully prepared to inflict heavy casualties on the US." The regional war has the potential to become a global war considering the economic strangulation of the developed and developing world. An early ceasefire is in the interest of all parties. President Trump has stated that the war may be wound up in two to three weeks, and the Iranian establishment has also shown interest in ending the war, provided it can be given sureties of no further attacks by the US and Israel. The author was Head of the Mission and Force Commander of UN Peacekeeping Mission (UNDOF) between Israel and Syria at Golan Heights from 2012 to 2014. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
