Treasuries Market Stalls Amid Economic Data and Anticipation of Trump's Iran Address
Treasuries Rally Stalls as Investors Await Trump’s Iran Speech
Mint
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The rally in the $31 trillion Treasuries market has stalled as steady hiring and consumer spending offset hopes for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts linked to the potential end of the Iran conflict. Investors are closely watching President Donald Trump's upcoming speech regarding the situation in the Middle East.
- 01Steady economic data has led to little change in Treasury yields.
- 02The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until late 2026.
- 03Oil prices have fluctuated due to sentiment around the Iran conflict.
- 04The bond market experienced a significant decline in March, losing 1.7%.
- 05Traders are now pricing in expectations for Fed easing by year-end.
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The $31 trillion Treasuries market has seen a stall in its rally following the release of economic data indicating steady hiring and consumer spending, which countered the optimism surrounding a potential end to the Iran conflict. Treasury yields remained stable on Wednesday, following a brief decline earlier in the session as Brent crude oil prices dipped below $100 a barrel. Jan Nevruzi, an interest-rate strategist at TD Securities, noted that while there was a relief rally due to developments in the Middle East, stronger-than-expected economic data supported higher yields. February retail sales and private-sector hiring figures exceeded economist forecasts, suggesting a firmer economic outlook. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem highlighted rising risks to both inflation and employment, indicating that the Fed may need to adjust interest rates based on economic developments. Bloomberg Intelligence strategists have revised their forecast for the US two-year yield to 3.4% by year-end, anticipating that the Fed will hold off on rate cuts until late 2026. The bond market has been under pressure following a 1.7% decline in March, attributed to inflation concerns linked to rising oil prices. The market is now pricing in expectations for about seven basis points of easing by the end of the year, a shift from previous expectations of a rate hike.
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The stability of Treasury yields may influence borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, potentially affecting loan rates and mortgage payments.
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