The phrase 'Super El Niño' tends to alarm farmers and residents in bushfire-prone areas of Australia, yet many climate scientists find it misleading. El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific, influences Australia's weather patterns, particularly rainfall and temperature. However, the strength of El Niño, often measured by the Nino3.4 index, does not always correlate with rainfall changes in eastern Australia. For instance, during the 'strong' El Niño of 1997-98, rainfall remained stable, while the 'weak' El Niño of 2002-03 resulted in significant rainfall deficits. Furthermore, forecasts made in autumn are often unreliable due to what meteorologists call the 'Autumn Predictability Barrier'. The Bureau of Meteorology has introduced a relative Niño index to better account for ongoing climate change. As of April 2026, predictions suggest a strong El Niño might develop, but it is too early to draw conclusions. Scientists advise caution and suggest waiting until late autumn or early winter for more reliable forecasts.