Understanding the Unpredictability of Gold Prices Amid Global Instability
Who really sets gold prices? Central banks hold the power—and it’s unpredictable
The Economic TimesImage: The Economic Times
Gold prices have dropped by 27% since January 2023, primarily due to a slowdown in central bank purchases, which have shifted from aggressive accumulation to a mere 5 tonnes in January 2026. This trend highlights the unpredictable nature of gold as an investment, driven largely by geopolitical factors rather than retail sentiment.
- 01Gold prices fell 27% since January 2023, reaching a low of $4,090 per ounce.
- 02Central bank purchases of gold slowed significantly, with only 5 tonnes bought in January 2026.
- 03Gold's value is largely influenced by decisions made in finance ministries and central banks.
- 04Unlike equities, gold does not generate earnings and is subject to unpredictable institutional buying.
- 05Investors should treat gold as insurance rather than a speculative investment.
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Gold, often seen as a safe haven during crises, has experienced a significant decline in value, dropping 27% from its January peak of $5,595 per ounce to a low of $4,090 in mid-March 2023. This downturn is attributed to a slowdown in central bank purchases, which fell to just 5 tonnes in January 2026 from an average of 27 tonnes in 2025. The primary driver of gold's previous price surge was the accumulation by central banks in response to geopolitical tensions, particularly after the freezing of Russian Central Bank reserves following the Ukraine war. However, the current geopolitical climate, including the war in Iran, has not prompted a similar rush to gold, causing central banks to pause their buying activity. This shift underscores the unpredictable nature of gold prices, which are influenced by decisions from finance ministries and central banks rather than retail investor sentiment. As a result, ordinary investors should approach gold with caution, treating it as a form of insurance rather than a speculative investment, and maintain a diversified portfolio that includes assets with more predictable growth potential.
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The decline in gold prices may affect investors who rely on gold as a hedge against economic instability, potentially leading to financial losses.
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