The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will convene from April 6 to 8, 2026, amid significant global uncertainties stemming from the ongoing conflict in West Asia. Rising crude oil prices, which have surpassed $100 per barrel, and a weakening rupee, now over ₹93 per dollar, have raised concerns about imported inflation and potential energy supply disruptions. According to SBI Research, the RBI is expected to maintain its current policy rates during this meeting, marking its first review since the escalation of the West Asia conflict. The report emphasizes that imported inflation is already at 5.4% and could rise further, particularly if weather-related risks, such as a potential Super El Nino, exacerbate price pressures. Additionally, the report highlights that foreign institutional investor outflows have reached $16.6 billion in FY26, the highest since 1991, raising concerns about India's balance of payments remaining in deficit in FY27. Given these challenges, the RBI is likely to communicate its policy cautiously.