U.S. and Iranian negotiators are advancing toward a framework agreement aimed at ending the ongoing conflict, with U.S. officials indicating that the negotiating team, led by Vice President JD Vance, Middle East envoy Steve Witkov, and senior advisor Jared Kushner, is close to achieving their objectives. Despite this progress, a ceasefire extension will likely be required to finalize the complex details of a permanent peace deal. Current predictions from the prediction market Polymarket show a 27% chance of a permanent agreement before April 22, increasing to 42% by April 30, and reaching 60% by May 31, reflecting a growing optimism about a resolution. However, internal divisions within the Iranian government pose challenges to reaching a consensus. Additionally, the easing of geopolitical tensions has contributed to a recovery in Bitcoin prices, highlighting the broader impact of these negotiations on risk assets.